Other Eredivisie Teams
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- Kowalczyk
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Twente are one of those teams that have nothing left to play for. They won't win the title; they can't drop out of the top five. Teams like that will start a game with the will to win, and if they take a 1-0 lead they will think: "Wow, we're winning against PSV... that would be nice, so let's try to finish the job." But the moment they go a goal down they will think: oh, whatever...
That's what's just happened. They won't come back. This game is over. Our last hope: PSV dropping points at Utrecht next weekend. I don't expect that to happen: Utrecht are crap and PSV always win there.
The only thing that gives me a little bit of hope is the fact that Utrecht will want to defend 9th place. If they finish 9th they will play in the play-offs for one UEFA Cup berth. If they drop to 10th, they won't. So they actually have a reason to go for a result. I'm sure they'll try it, but I think they're simply not good enough.
K.
That's what's just happened. They won't come back. This game is over. Our last hope: PSV dropping points at Utrecht next weekend. I don't expect that to happen: Utrecht are crap and PSV always win there.
The only thing that gives me a little bit of hope is the fact that Utrecht will want to defend 9th place. If they finish 9th they will play in the play-offs for one UEFA Cup berth. If they drop to 10th, they won't. So they actually have a reason to go for a result. I'm sure they'll try it, but I think they're simply not good enough.
K.
Still alive...
- Kowalczyk
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And the first champion to have dropped 18 points in the second season half... But you're right: after 34 matches a football league will always have the winner it deserves.bryan schreef:But admittedly, they will probably the first champions in a long time to get hammered 5-1 at home. :D
Just to finish this post on a positive note: ADO Den Haag officially relegated! :party:
K.
Still alive...
- Monkey Tonk
- Berichten: 9667
- Lid geworden op: vr sep 19, 2003 6:54 pm
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You mentioned the same thing last week. And it sounds true enough; in a divine justice kind of way. But is it really?Kowalczyk schreef:But you're right: after 34 matches a football league will always have the winner it deserves.
K.
Statistically, a sample size of 34 games is too small for reliable conclusions. For example, you could believe a betting trend was 70% just because the results to date are 24-10, but it wouldn't be a good idea to bet your house on it. It would be a very different story if the trend was 240-100.
So while I understand where you're coming from, I still think that, at least technically, there is a lot of room for short term fluctuations, -known as luck or bad luck-, within a 34 match model. It would be nice to think that those fluctuations would spread out evenly over the different teams, but that is not likely.
When you have a runaway winner there is no argument. But when two are three teams are within a point of the championship, the influence of short term fluctuations becomes very significant.
Sorry. ;)
By the way, if players were more aware of this they would play every second on the pitch with 100% intensity. A single action can indeed decide the championship.
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- Berichten: 12
- Lid geworden op: di aug 15, 2006 9:44 pm
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so you guys touched on AZ in the uefa cup a few posts ago,
but i didnt really get an overall sense of your feelings:
good riddence or rather see a dutch team continue on?
and i know we all hate psv, but i would still rather see a dutch team in the semi-finals of the champions league than three english teams.
twente just couldnt put much together today against psv. they had a few good build up plays, but when the ball finally made it to the strikers, they were closed down quite quickly.
ugh, heres praying for utrecht and vitesse...
but i didnt really get an overall sense of your feelings:
good riddence or rather see a dutch team continue on?
and i know we all hate psv, but i would still rather see a dutch team in the semi-finals of the champions league than three english teams.
twente just couldnt put much together today against psv. they had a few good build up plays, but when the ball finally made it to the strikers, they were closed down quite quickly.
ugh, heres praying for utrecht and vitesse...
- ZoefdeHaas
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And how poor performing is Ajax, if you look at psv's results... :sad:Kowalczyk schreef:And the first champion to have dropped 18 points in the second season half... But you're right: after 34 matches a football league will always have the winner it deserves.bryan schreef:But admittedly, they will probably the first champions in a long time to get hammered 5-1 at home. :D
K.
- Kowalczyk
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Yep. Fact.GangstaRiB schreef:And how poor performing is Ajax, if you look at psv's results... :sad:
Your can divide this season into four phases:
1. A Tight Race: August 20 - November 12
Ajax and PSV win almost everything. An extremely tight season, in which the two 'big ones' will make very few mistakes, seems ahead. Ajax do slightly better, win a handful of tough away games they lost last season and have a lead of two points. However, they lose the first cracker to PSV, at the ArenA: 0-1. For nearly three months, the balance is near perfect, nonetheless.
2. Ajax Collapse: November 19 - December 30
In hardly six weeks' time Ajax completely fall apart, whereas PSV seem unbeatable. It starts with a 1-1 draw at home to Twente (Nov 19), followed by a 3-0 hammering at Sparta Rotterdam (Nov 26). The crisis reaches its climax in Arnhem on Dec 24, where Ajax are 0-2 up at half-time, but concede four goals in the second half. On November 12, during the half-time break of Ajax vs PSV, Ajax were two points ahead. By Christmas, they are eleven points behind...
3. PSV Collapse: January 14 - February 14
The winter break is over and an unexpected miracle occurs: PSV start dropping points - and it doesn't stop. Meanwhile, Ajax beat Utrecht (2-0), go 2-0 down at Groningen but storm back to win 2-3 and hammer rivals Feyenoord (4-1). In less than one month PSV's eleven point lead evaporates almost completely. A dead season has come back to life. But then, Ajax suffer a heavy defeat in the UEFA Cup, 3-0 at Werder Bremen. It will prove to be a turning point.
4. Inconsistency All Around... And Suddenly There's AZ: February 18 - today
The Werder disaster appears to have hit Ajax hard: they drop two unlikely points against Excelsior (2-2), suffer a hugely painful home defeat against Heerenveen (0-1) and are extremely unfortunate at AZ (1-1). In no-time, PSV's lead is ten points again, but the crisis in Eindhoven is not over. What follows is a phase of flabbergasting inconsistency in both Eindhoven and Amsterdam: PSV continue to lose points (18 after the winter break in total, as of mid-April!), but Ajax fail (sometimes almost refuse) to take advantage. In Enschede (1-4) and Eindhoven (1-5) they look like champions, but in Waalwijk (2-2) the engine once again 'jams' in mysterious fashion. Meanwhile, AZ come closer, until nobody in The Netherlands can deny any longer that they're serious title contenders... and quite probably Holland's most consistent football team...
K.
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- DanK
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- Lid geworden op: do feb 03, 2005 11:42 pm
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I think this is an interesting point Menno. Even the football "experts" in this country rave about AZ and LvG.Kowalczyk schreef:...Meanwhile, AZ come closer, until nobody in The Netherlands can deny any longer that they're serious title contenders... and quite probably Holland's most consistent football team...
K.
As much as I want Ajax to win the league ( :eusa_pray: ) I have no issues with AZ taking the crown for a few reasons:
1. They play what is at times beautiful football
2. They can score a heck of a lot of goals
3. In a way, they are the Ajax I want Ajax to be
4. It will be great for Dutch Football to have a new (real) contender for the first time in 25 years or so
5. IMO - at the moment, they are THE only team that would do the country proud in Europe.
Again, of course my heart lies with Ajax and I want US to win the league, but I do not begrudge AZ claiming the title at all...hey and my Opa was born in Alkmaar, so there is some connection I can claim... ;)
- ZoefdeHaas
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I share your sentiments completely....plus I would much rather go into the play-offs with P$V as opponents than AZ.DanK schreef:I think this is an interesting point Menno. Even the football "experts" in this country rave about AZ and LvG.Kowalczyk schreef:...Meanwhile, AZ come closer, until nobody in The Netherlands can deny any longer that they're serious title contenders... and quite probably Holland's most consistent football team...
K.
As much as I want Ajax to win the league ( :eusa_pray: ) I have no issues with AZ taking the crown for a few reasons:
1. They play what is at times beautiful football
2. They can score a heck of a lot of goals
3. In a way, they are the Ajax I want Ajax to be
4. It will be great for Dutch Football to have a new (real) contender for the first time in 25 years or so
5. IMO - at the moment, they are THE only team that would do the country proud in Europe.
Again, of course my heart lies with Ajax and I want US to win the league, but I do not begrudge AZ claiming the title at all...hey and my Opa was born in Alkmaar, so there is some connection I can claim... ;)
:yes:
“If I wanted you to understand it, I would have explained it better.”
- Kowalczyk
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It is something to think about, actually... Both games in the league ended in a draw, but I have a bad feeling about playing them in the playoffs and the cup final. I don't think we'll beat them three times in such a short period of time.Manneken Pis schreef:I would much rather go into the play-offs with P$V as opponents than AZ.
The KNVB Cup won't save the season for me and I won't go bananas if we win it. Ironically enough the KNVB Cup will only 'count' if we crash out against RKC or lose the final... So we have to win it.
And the play-offs will be absolutely vital. We have to be in the Champions League next season. That's an absolute must. A season in the UEFA Cup is not a disaster, and every once in a while it's actually nice. But next season we must be in the CL again.
K.
Still alive...
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The task will be daunting. First there will be the disappointment about losing the championship. Then you have to play 4 'finals' against teams that performed well against Ajax. And if we win the play-offs, we have to qualify against a FC Copenhagen-look-a-like.....Kowalczyk schreef:It is something to think about, actually... Both games in the league ended in a draw, but I have a bad feeling about playing them in the playoffs and the cup final. I don't think we'll beat them three times in such a short period of time.Manneken Pis schreef:I would much rather go into the play-offs with P$V as opponents than AZ.
The KNVB Cup won't save the season for me and I won't go bananas if we win it. Ironically enough the KNVB Cup will only 'count' if we crash out against RKC or lose the final... So we have to win it.
And the play-offs will be absolutely vital. We have to be in the Champions League next season. That's an absolute must. A season in the UEFA Cup is not a disaster, and every once in a while it's actually nice. But next season we must be in the CL again.
K.
Personally I don't see us win the play-offs again... Just a feeling.
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- Lid geworden op: zo mar 13, 2005 10:44 pm
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Yup. Last year everybody spoke about 'the play-offs are made for Ajax' and you had the dvd-thing with feyenoord :DKowalczyk schreef:Same here. I have a really, really bad feeling about it. Last year it was written in the stars that we were going to make it. But this year...? Bad, bad feeling...GangstaRiB schreef:Personally I don't see us win the play-offs again... Just a feeling.
K.
But this time... four games, a lot of players making up their minds for what to do next season...
:nooo: