Here are my thoughts on the Thun game (and, as a matter of fact, our entire Champions League campaign).
Normally, in a more or less
normal Champions League group, 10 points are enough to advance. Which means, reasonably, that Ajax must grab 6 against Thun and 4 against Sparta. Anything against Arsenal would be a bonus. This was what I thought at the start of the campaign.
I am not saying that one point after two games is a 'good start' and
of course we should have beaten Sparta by a lightyear... but, in a way, you can say that everything is going 'according to plan' so far. It's just that we started with two fixtures that normally belong to the toughest three of the campaign. The situation of Sparta Prague is
far worse at the moment: for them to finish second they require 6 points against Thun and 4 against Ajax. Which means that a point at
home (!) against Ajax and a defeat in Switzerland is a seriously shit start, because they face Arsenal twice in the two middle games.
Back to Ajax.
We are now at the turning point: we now get the three 'easiest' fixtures of the campaign
in a row. We must start grabbing points now. In fact: these are the three games from which we must get nine points if we want to advance. If we grab only six, or even seven, we might find ourselves in the position of having to notch a result in London. Which is not impossible (Arsenal are more vulnerable at home and will almost certainly have won the group by the time we go there), but it's not nice if you
have to get a result there.
In other words: there is no reason for panic based on the results so far, but from now on there are no more excuses. We will have to start doing the business
now. These are the games for it. If we do
not beat Thun at home, we are almost certainly f*cked, if you ask me. As simple as that. Thun at home is a
final. All or nothing.
I would be seriously depressed if we don't advance. This is the
perfect season for it, for the following reasons:
1.
Seeding
We were in pot 3 for the draw in recent seasons and, based on our results in recent years, we could have been in pot 4 (and we still
can be in upcoming seasons). But due to the absence of teams such as Deportivo, Leverkusen and Monaco, plus the elimination of some seeded teams in the qualifying rounds, we found ourselves in pot 2, which means that there is only one side in this group that has performed better in Europe than Ajax (namely: Arsenal). We are supposed to be stronger than the other two. If you're in pot 3 you will have to 'over-achieve' in order to advance (because you'll have to finish ahead of a side that has been better than you in recent years). Last season was a perfect example: Juventus (pot 1) and Bayern Munich (pot 2). If you're in pot 2 the second slot in the group is supposed to be your 'natural position', which means you're under-achieving if you finish third. In this group, all we have to do is perform
normally -- and we'll advance.
2.
Draw / Opponents
As you know, there are four pots of eight teams for the draw (based on the UEFA ranking), and each group is put together by drawing one team from each pot. Group B has the 'weakest' side from pot 1 (Arsenal, #8 in pot 1), the weakest side from pot 2 (Ajax, #8 in pot 2), the fifth side from pot 3 (Sparta Prague; that's the 'bottom half' of pot 3) and the weakest-but-one side from pot 4 (FC Thun, #7 in pot 4). Which means - let's face it - that this os probably the weakest Champions League group
ever. It's pretty ridiculous already that a team like Ajax can be in pot 2 in the first place, but even if we ignore that fact: one of the weaker sides from each pot was drawn into group B.
3.
Fixture List
Playing the toughest game (the away game at the 'pot 1' side) on the last matchday is always a good thing, because there's a more than fair chance that they will already have qualified by then. Also, it's a very good thing to play the pot 4 team in the two middle fixtures, so that you exactly know what the situation is in the group and how many points are required.
Conclusion: we have the perfect situation this season. We've been pretty damned fortunate in every f*cking thinkable way this season. If we don't make it now, we probably never will.
Right. Back to the practical situation.
If we look at the recent Champions League campaigns we will find that Ajax
did manage wins over their 'pot 4 opponents' at home (Club Brugge in 2003 and Maccabi Tel Aviv in 2004), but suffered fatal away defeats against the same sides. Bruges and Tel Aviv were the places where we committed suicide
This leads me to believe that (
if we manage to beat them at home) Thun away will be the key game. We did not win European away game since the fall of 2002 (Olympique Lyon) and
this and that series of piss-poor European results on the road must be brought to and end. The place for that is Berne, Switzerland and the time is November 2nd, 20:45 CET. Period. We absolutely
must grab a win there (
and, of course, beat them at home, otherwise you can just forget about this entire post and accept our elimination).
The #2 slot is our 'natural position' in this group and if we come up with sorry excuses for not advancing from this group, we've become a very, very sad little club that his flushed all of its pride down the toilet.
Thanks for listening.
K.